Quora: Did President Trump just lose the trade war with China, as he has declared a truce again?
Muhammed Borhanuddin, studied International Relations at University of Dhaka (1991) answered
The way Trump waged the trade war, the defeat was destined in itself.
As it went in, Trump started losing it immediately on the home ground. And now it’s not China who is about to defeat him, but the Americans themselves who are about to be badly affected by this war. You can’t fool the citizens by some instant cash gains.
So what has Trump gained from China, so far?
Mere two of the 100 sticks China holds in its safe.
One: China has agreed to address the patent piracy issue. Two: China has committed to reduce restrictions on foreign companies wishing to operate in China.
But these concessions were not made particularly to American companies, but to all in general. Other than that, Trump got a mere commitment of China’s more imports from the USA, which is even not straight-forward but conditional (unspoken, though). So, I can’t add one more stick on to Trump’s plate.
So, China still holds 98 sticks in its hands, and hopefully will give away a few more in exchange of Trump’s relaxations that must satisfy China.
And then in the end, what Trump will give away in exchange will constitute Trump a loser. He won’t win what he set to. That’s what I can predict based on the current standoff.
Well, I think this is not the end of life. There is still a way to gain a win. I mean both parties can fairly trade and win.
Just step up goodwill.
Let goodwill be in the core of diplomacy. Let goodwill and trust replace fear and arrogance. Relationships can turn beautiful that way and much of fair gains is attainable.
China is a grown superpower—at least economically. And you know it’s economy that steers other mights—political, military and technological. The USA itself is the living instance of this brutal truth. And in the USA’s position in this trade war, this truth brutally holds you down to accept that you just can’t ignore that China is a superpower and that you can’t just humiliate it.
Acceptance. This is how history of power, or power-struggle, revolves in the world.
No empire is immortal, no nation holds the superpower-grid for ever. The UK has set the best example. When time was up, it accepted the reality, it recognized the USA as the next superpower of the world and finally became a friendly ally to it. So has been the case with all other superpowers that have ever existed.
The other fact is also compelling.
There are other production bases around for the USA, but China is the one that can adequately feed the hunger of the USA. At least until now. The USA is the wealthiest country in terms of consumption, technology and innovation. And its technologies and technological products still reign over the world. But without China’s hands, the USA stands nowhere to be able to maintain this global hegemony. So, it’s for the USA’s highest interest that the USA keep China stay up, and of course vice-versa.
And there is one big hope about China.
Though we really don’t know its future (ad)venture, historically China showed up to be a non-aggressive nation, both politically and militarily. So, as long as China doesn’t pose threats to global peace and security, it’s for the US interests [and for global interests as well] that we all maintain a cooperative relationship with China.
Disrespect and humiliation can’t be a long-lasting manner or policy to maintain prosperous and positive bilateral relations.
Arrogance never wins.