Vistara chief strategy and commercial officer Sanjiv Kapoor also expressed concern around challenges recently, particularly about aviation fuel rates in India. He said: “Domestic aviation fuel (ATF) rates ex-DEL are now 97% higher (i.e. almost double) the low it hit in Feb-2016, and less than 10% short of highest ever it hit in 2014”. Average fares are, however, down at least 40% from 2014, according to Mr Kapoor.
From these comments it can be deduced that the main factors affecting the industry are the rise in the price of Brent fuel and a depreciating rupee – tossed together with a typically low-demand monsoon season that does not allow airlines to raise their fares. But Jet Airways seems to be the most affected.
Jet Airways maintains that all its loan accounts are “standard and there is no overdue in any of our accounts”, but there are still “uncertainties in relation to generation of sustainable cash flows and ability to repay its borrowings”. The natural inclination for an airline, particularly a full service airline like Jet Airways, would be to increase revenue in such a situation – by increasing yields. However, the combination of monsoon season and wider macroeconomic environment is constraining Jet Airways from doing this.
The turnaround scheme has thus identified a few short term measures for Jet Airways to pursue and improve its liquidity position. These include a balance sheet restructuring, infusion of capital and the monetisation of the airline’s stake in its loyalty programme, Jet Privilege.
Jet Privilege is 49.9% owned by Jet Airways, with the remaining stake held by Etihad Aviation Group, the airline group which separately owns a 24% stake in Jet Airways. According to Indian media, Jet Airways could also be in talks with Indian non-banking financial companies (NBFC) to monetise its forward sales to generate a short term cash supply of around USD215 million, while Boeing could return a portion (USD200 million) of the amount paid by Jet Airways to procure 75 737 MAX aircraft.
Options available :
1) A balance sheet restructuring. Borrow from future sales earning by studying it’s balance sheets and reforms to lower the costs of operations. Oil is a concern but it will unlikely to come down. Your admin costs are too high.
2) Infusion of capital. Jet Airways could also be in talks with Indian non-banking financial companies (NBFC) to monetise its forward sales to generate a short term cash supply of around USD215 million.
3) Lowering it’s stake in the monetisation of the airline’s stake in its loyalty programme, Jet Privilege of 49.9% to Etihad Aviation Group 24%.
4) Cancel order from Boeing to procure 75 737 MAX aircraft to return a portion (USD200 million) of the amount paid by Jet Airways.
I would chose option (4) first as structurely Jet Airline is operationally viable. Then try to negotiate with NBFC to generate a short term cash supply of around USD215 million. Lastly which I do not recommend is to sell your stake of 49.9% to lower your shareholding which I do not think you will execise this right. After restructuring you can find angel investors for additional funds by issuing new shares on your potential of earnings. I do not think you will have lack of investors.
This is just a preliminary assessment and I can give you a very detailed assessment if I have additional data and reports.
1) The top 10 most profitable flight routes to take.
2) Your competitor’s reach and profitability
3) Future likely earnings based on the entire market of aviation in India.
4) How to hedge against high prices and ensure long term supply.
5) The projection of new aircraft purchases depending on demand.
Contributed by Oogle.
The Civil Aviation Ministry and the regulator have been allegedly slow in addressing issues. For example, India was one of the last nations to ground the beleaguered 737 Max planes. Executives speak of archaic rules called the route dispersal guidelines (RDG) that mandate airlines to fly a certain percentage of flights in smaller, unprofitable air routes.
“The government can also reduce cumbersome regulation like RDG that results in overcapacity in certain markets with a more comprehensive demand-supply and auction-driven regional connectivity scheme. The current form of RDG drives up costs and introduces inefficiencies,” said a second airline executive, who also asked not to be named.
“There is also a need to professionalise regulators like DGCA to ensure that officials have an understanding of the sector. That will ensure bringing in better systems by airlines, leading to reforms in the way they are run,” said a third airline executive.
CAPA Centre for Aviation, a Sydney-based consultant, estimates the current number of pilots in India at 7,963. In 10 years, airlines will have to hire 17,164 more. The projected growth in capacity, because of plane orders, will lead to a 14% shortfall in crew, a part of which will have to be fulfilled by more expensive expatriate pilots, leading to a rise in the wage bill, the second biggest cost chunk after fuel.
Jet fuel prices constitute about 40% of costs for an Indian carrier and are taxed higher here than anywhere else in the world. A recent analysis by ET of the correlation between fuel prices and airline profitability in the last 10 years showed at least three points — a rise in the December quarter of 2013 and significant dents in April-March 2015 and January-March 2016 — that plunged airlines into deep losses or catapulted them to significant profitability.
Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have risen 9% between January and March-end, shows data from the fuel’s biggest supplier, the state-run Indian Oil Corporation. That, combined with typical low-ticket pricing in India’s price-sensitive market, will continue to hamper airline margins.
Domestic lenders have invited bids for selling stake in Jet Airways. On April 18, the lenders said they were “reasonably hopeful” that the bidding process for the airline would end successfully. The finance ministry has decided to waive the mandatory customs requirement that Jet’s grounded planes in India must first be sent to the country of registration of their lessors and then fly them back to India before they can be used by other carriers. This will speed up lease of Jet planes to other airlines.
Simultaneously, Air India and SpiceJet have started working on plans to induct Jet’s planes. While SpiceJet has initiated the process to take over 22 of Jet’s Boeing 737s, AI is looking at Jet’s five B777s, B737s for AI Express and may even consider the wide-bodied Airbus A330. In all, AI may take 10 to 12 of Jet’s planes and SpiceJet may take a few more in the coming weeks.
To operate these planes, AI and SpiceJet will take aircraft with operating crew from Jet. This, authorities hope, will help provide employment to at least some of Jet’s employees — pilots, engineers and cabin crew and the additional flights will help bring down fares.
On Friday, AI chief Ashwani Lohani discussed the issue with SBI chairman Rajnish Kumar at the airline’s headquarters in the capital.