Prediction software by Microsoft, Israel(IIT)

Megan Rose Dickey, Business Insider GlobalPost.com 
February 4, 2013

Researchers from Microsoft and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed software that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur, Tom Simonite of MIT Technology Review reports.
The system, which taps into 22 years worth of archives from The New York Times, works by identifying and analyzing clues from news reports and more than 90 other data sources from the web.
The prototype software can predict things like disease outbreaks, violence, and natural disasters.
For example, when tested on historical data from 2006, the system correctly predicted a cholera outbreak based on reports of droughts in Angola. The software is right between 70 to 90 percent of the time.
Eric Horvitz, a scientist and co-director at Microsoft Research, told Simonite that a refined version of the system could be used in real settings to help experts prepare for emergency and humanitarian response, for example.
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What a joke! Now Microsoft and Isreal wants to write prediction software on 90% accuracy?
What are your assumptions?
What are your factors?
Even for weather and earthquake prediction you will never get 90% accuracy EXCEPT ME.

You monitor and track 1 event eg The Katrina storm
What are the factors that cause the storm?
Wind?Pressure?Direction?
That is only 1 event, you need thousands of analysis of events to be certain.
And compare with present events if anything will fit into the picture.
Then link to others like earthquake, tide, and many other factors.
By that time, there will be so many unknowns even the deep blue cannot calculate.
90% accuracy, my foot.
50 years time then you come and talk to me.

You need to accurately track all the right factors.
Above sea level, below sea level, and underground.
I can provide a whole lists, and only if you are able to accurately capture all these events for at least 10 years analysis and study, than I would say your prediction software than can achieve close to 90% accuracy.

– Contributed by Oogle.

Author: Gilbert Tan TS

IT expert with more than 20 years experience in Apple, Andriod and Windows PC. Interests include hardware and software, Internet and multimedia. An experienced Real Estate agent, Insurance agent, and a Futures trader.

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